As part of the Montana Healthcare Foundation’s ongoing work to identify ways to control prices on the individual health insurance market, they requested an analysis by national actuarial firm Wakely to understand how ending Medicaid expansion in Montana might impact private insurance rates. The report finds that Medicaid expansion has had a significant impact on the individual market, resulting in an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 people shifting from the individual market to the Medicaid program, and likely resulting in lower premiums on the individual market.
To date, no state has ended Medicaid expansion. According to Wakely’s analysis, ending the Medicaid expansion could result in 2020 premium increases of approximately 4% to 7% relative to any other increases that might occur due to other factors. The report notes that there are other downstream impacts—such as an increase in uncompensated care for providers that could further increase premium rates—that could not be estimated in this study.